Evolution and prediction of shoreline erosion and siltation in Haizhou Bay

The Lansat 8 remote sensing images of Haizhou Bay, Jiangsu, East China, in nine years from 2013 to 2021 were selected to analyze the evolution of erosion and siltation of various types of coastlines in Haizhou Bay in terms of the diversity index of coastline types, shoreline change rate (EPR), and net coastal movement (NSM) of coastline changes in the nine years, and qualitatively predict the coastline of 2025 based on the Prophet model. Results show that the bedrock shoreline was relatively stable as a whole in the past nine years, the muddy shoreline from Qindao pier to Linhong River mouth was unstable with obvious oceanward siltation, and the sandy shoreline was relatively stable as a whole with no obvious erosion and siltation tendency. It is predicted that in 2025, the muddy shoreline of Haizhou Bay and the shoreline in Linhong River mouth will extend seaward, and the remaining shorelines will be relatively stable without obvious siltation and erosion changes.