越南红河三角洲海水入侵风险评估研究

    Risk assessment of seawater intrusion in the Red River Delta of Vietnam

    • 摘要: 越南红河三角洲是海水入侵的脆弱区,其海水入侵灾害风险评估对区域防灾减灾至关重要。本文开展了海水入侵灾害风险评价指标体系和灾害风险指数的构建方法研究,综合评估了红河三角洲沿海的海防市、太平省、南定省和宁平省的灾害风险及空间分布特征。结果表明:①灾害风险指数取值范围为0.35~0.67,整体处于较低—中等水平,空间上呈由东南沿海向西北内陆递减的趋势;②危险性指数取值范围为0.22~0.53,整体处于较低—中等水平,南定省沿海地区、海防市和太平省为高危险区;③暴露性指数取值范围为0.20~0.87,整体处于中等—高等水平,且研究区的暴露性差异较大,南定省和宁平省东部沿海暴露性较高;④脆弱性指数取值范围为0.50~0.79,整体处于中等—较高水平,宁平省的脆弱性较突出;⑤海水入侵灾害风险主要受到区域社会经济系统的暴露性和脆弱性影响。应对不同区域特征有针对性的采取防灾减灾措施。本研究可为红河三角洲海水入侵防灾减灾提供参考与支撑。

       

      Abstract: The Red River Delta (RRD) in Vietnam is highly vulnerable to seawater intrusion, on which the disaster risk assessment is essential for effective regional disaster prevention and mitigation. We developed a comprehensive indicator system for assessing seawater intrusion risks by analyzing the disaster risks and their spatial distribution across the provinces of Hai Phong, Thai Binh, Nam Dinh, and Ninh Binh. Results show that: ① The disaster risk levels range from 0.35 to 0.67, reflecting a low to moderate risk level, with a decreasing trend from the southeastern coastal regions to the northwestern inland areas; ② The risk indicators range from 0.22 to 0.53, indicating low to moderate level, with high-risk areas concentrated along the coasts of Nam Dinh, Hai Phong, and Thai Binh; ③ The exposure indicators span from 0.20 to 0.87, showing moderate to high level of exposure, with elevated levels in the eastern coastal regions of Nam Dinh and Ninh Binh; ④ The vulnerability indicators range from 0.50 to 0.79, indicating moderate to high vulnerability, with the highest vulnerability observed in Ninn Binh; ⑤ The risk of seawater intrusion disasters is mainly affected by the exposure and vulnerability of regional socio-economic systems., to which we shall consider the need for region-specific disaster prevention and mitigation measures. This study provided a critical insight for enhancing disaster resilience against seawater intrusion in the RRD.

       

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