基于SPC控制图与加权决策树识别海上油气井生产异常

    Abnormal production-events recognition of offshore oil and gas wells based on SPC control charts and weighted decision tree

    • 摘要: 中国很多海上油田已进入开采中后期,设备设施普遍老化,故障概率加大。由于海上油气井生产维护成本高昂,对油气井潜在故障的准确识别至关重要。通过对标准SPC控制图进行优化,建立适合海上油气井的生产参数预警模型,自动判断海上油气井生产参数异常。同时,结合业务专家经验,提出一种基于加权决策树的组合参数故障诊断模型,预测所发生的故障类型。该预警模型提高了海上油气井故障识别的时效性和准确率。通过在南海西部海域油气井的应用实践,该模型可以缩短措施反应周期至少8.4天,预警成功率91.18%,可见该模型能够实现油气井生产异常和故障的智能识别,保障海上油气井的高产稳产。

       

      Abstract: Many offshore oil fields in China have entered the middle or late stage of exploitation, the equipment and facilities are generally aging, and the breakdown probability is increasing. Due to the high cost of production and maintenance of offshore oil and gas wells, it is very important to identify the potential breakdown of oil and gas wells accurately. By optimizing the standard SPC (statistical process control) chart, we established an appropriate early warning model with production parameter for offshore oil and gas wells, by which to the abnormal production parameters of offshore oil and gas wells can be judged dynamically. At the same time, combined with the business experts experience, we proposed a fault diagnosis model to predict the breakdown types based on weighted decision tree and multi-parameter combination. The early warning model improved the timeliness and accuracy of breakdown identification of offshore oil and gas wells. Application of the model in oil and gas wells in the western South China Sea shortened the response time to the countermeasure by at least 8.4 days, and the success rate of early warning reached 91.18%. Therefore, the model can realize the intelligent identification of oil and gas well production abnormalities and breakdownof oil-and-gas wells, and ensure the high and stable production of offshore oil and gas wells.

       

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