基于SSA-SVM模型的台风风暴潮灾害损失评估

    Loss assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster based on SSA-SVM model

    • 摘要: 受全球气候变化影响,台风风暴潮造成的损失显著增加,准确构建高效、合理的损失评估模型对海洋灾害防灾减灾工程具有重大现实意义。使用4组指标构建台风风暴潮指标体系,并通过主成分分析筛选出输入因子。采用麻雀搜索算法优化支持向量机模型对台风风暴潮损失分级和直接经济损失进行评估,与其他优化算法进行比较分析,发现该模型具有更好的预测精确性。对指标体系中的4组指标分别进行评估,得出指标的有效性大小为危险性指标>气候变化指标>易损性指标>防灾减灾能力指标,表明了该实验的合理性,为防灾减灾事业提供了有效的评估方式。

       

      Abstract: Affected by global climate change, the losses caused by typhoon storm surge are increasing gradually. Building an accurate, efficient and reasonable loss assessment model is highly demanded for marine disaster prevention and mitigation projects. Four sets of indexes were used to construct the index system of typhoon storm surge, and the input factors were selected by principal component analysis. The sparrow search algorithm (SSA) was used to optimize the support vector machine model for loss classification and direct economic loss assessment of typhoon storm surge. Compared with other optimization algorithms, the SSA model showed better prediction accuracy. In addition, the four sets of indicators in the index system were evaluated individually, from which the order of effectiveness of them is: danger level > climate change > vulnerability > disaster prevention and mitigation capability. This study showed the rationality of the experiment and provided an effective assessment method for disaster prevention and mitigation.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回