全球深水-超深水油气勘探历程与发展趋势

    Global deep- and ultra-deep-water oil and gas exploration: review and outlook

    • 摘要: 全球深水-超深水油气勘探经历了深水探索发现(1959—1983年)、深水快速发展与超深水探索(1984—2009年)、深水-超深水稳定发展(2010年至今)3个阶段,形成了以墨西哥湾、巴西东部海域和西非海域为主的深水成熟勘探区,和以拉美东北部、东非、东地中海等为主的超深水新领域的勘探格局。2011年以来,全球深水-超深水勘探投入呈“两段式”特点,2011—2014年勘探投资和探井工作量投入呈现增长态势,处于历史高位;2014年国际油价下跌以来,勘探投入大幅缩减,投资项目多集中于拉丁美洲、北美洲和非洲重点领域。储量发现表现为“集中分布,多点突破”,东非、东地中海、黑海盆地天然气新领域和圭亚那海域石油新领域实现突破,发现时间集中于2011—2015年,水深集中在1500~2400 m超深水。深水-超深水领域油气资源潜力巨大,技术进步使得勘探竞争优势逐渐增强,在国际油价逐步回升的背景下,深水投资不断加大,未来深水成熟区继续挖潜,东非、东地中海、黑海、苏里南等深水-超深水新区不断实现突破,将继续引领全球深水-超深水油气勘探方向,推动深水-超深水油气勘探进入新的储量增长阶段。

       

      Abstract: Global deep- and ultra-deep-water oil and gas exploration has experienced three stages: deep-water discovery (1959-1983), deep-water rapid development and ultra-deep-water discovery (1984-2009), and deep- and ultra-deep-water stable development (2010-present). Deep-water mature exploration areas distributed mainly in the Gulf of Mexico, eastern Brazil, and West Africa, and new discoveries of ultra-deep-water fields are in the northeast Latin America, East Africa, and the eastern Mediterranean. In the past decade, the global deep-water and ultra-deep-water exploration investment showed a two-staged characteristic. In the first four years from 2011 to 2014 the investment and the number of wells were relatively large. As the oil price fell in 2014, the investment decreased sharply, and investment projects were mostly concentrated in the key areas in Latin America, North America, and Africa. In terms of reserves, the "multi-field breakthroughs and centralized distribution" is the typical characteristic. New field breakthroughs in natural gas were in the East Africa, the eastern Mediterranean, and the Black Sea basin, and those in oil were in Guyana. The discovery time was concentrated in the years from 2011 to 2015, and the water depth was mainly in 1 500~2 400 m. The potential of oil and gas resources in the deep-water and ultra-deep-water field is huge. Technological progress has enhanced the competitiveness of exploration. With the gradual recovery of oil price, investment into deep-water has been increasing. In the future, the reserve growth will sustain in the mature fields and multiple breakthroughs are expected to be made in deep-water frontiers including East Africa, eastern Mediterranean, Black Sea, and Suriname, which will lead the direction of global deep-water and ultra-deep-water oil and gas exploration and promote deep-water exploration into a new era of reserve growth.

       

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