黄河三角洲近期海岸线演变与预测

    Recent changes and forecast of the coastline of the Huanghe River deltaic regions

    • 摘要: 选择1976—2020年9期Landsat卫星遥感影像提取海岸线,从海岸线类型多样性指数、海岸线粗糙度、岸线变迁速率对黄河三角洲地区岸线近期演变进行定量分析,并对2030年海岸线形态进行预测,结果表明: 44年来,海岸线类型多样性指数变大,海岸线类型趋向多样化;海岸线形态粗糙,海岸线粗糙度曲线由相对平滑变为相对粗糙,形成众多“锯齿”状波动,后逐渐变平滑;河口地区岸线快速向海推进,河口两侧地区岸线则以退蚀为主;部分人工岸线向海快速推进后基本保持不变;经预测,2030年黄河三角洲河口地区,清8汊流路附近及宋春荣沟至虎头崖段岸线向海延伸,东风港至孤东油田段海岸线以侵蚀后退为主。

       

      Abstract: Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+, OLI multi-temporal of 9 remote sensing data form 1976 to 2020 were used to extract the coastline of the Huanghe River deltaic regions. Quantitative analyses of the coastline in terms of the index of coastline type diversity, roughness index, the end point change rate, etc., were performed to understand the temporal and spatial evolution of the coastlines. The shoreline variation was predicted using the Kalman filter useful for the development and protection of the Huanghe River delta. Results show that in the past 44 years, the index of coastline type diversity has been increasing, and the coastline types have been diversified. The coastline was rough, the shape of the coastline roughness curve generally changed from relatively smooth to relatively tortuous, and then to little smoother than before gradually. Generally, the coastlines of the estuary area advanced rapidly seaward, while both sides of the region were eroded. The artificial coastlines remain stable. It was predicted that in 2030, the coastline near Q8 Promontory and coastal area from Songchunronggou to Hutouya would advance seaward by sedimentary accumulation, whereas the coastline from the Dongfeng Port to Gudong Oilfield would retreat landward by erosion.

       

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